Larry Williams study
An accuracy test of the Forecast 2025 and Forecast 2026 cycle charts: 236 digitized charts, every claim scored against the same instrument with the forecast line dropped at random dates. Run 2026-10-10, prices through 2026-10-09.
Verdict
No measurable timing skill on stocks. By his own grading standard about six in ten waves end the labelled way and six in ten turns land within tolerance; the random-placement control scores the same on every item. Where the reports were right it was the direction of the year, which the control captures just as well.
His charts against the control
| Subset | Wave ended as labelled | control | Red turns GOOD+ | control | Road map followed | control | Charts graded FOLLOWED | expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 all charts | 58.5% | 58.3% | 59.2% | 60.1% | 54.6% | 61.8% | 40 of 108 | 40.5 |
| 2026 all charts | 60.9% | 60.6% | 63.7% | 64.7% | 59.6% | 64.6% | 24 of 59 | 24.3 |
| 2025 stocks | 60.3% | 57.6% | 60.4% | 60.4% | 54.5% | 62.9% | 22 of 55 | 20.2 |
| 2026 stocks | 58.8% | 63.4% | 66.1% | 66.5% | 60.7% | 65.4% | 12 of 32 | 14.4 |
Control: the same lines on the same instrument at random dates, the mean over many placements. A column reads "how hard was this call to get right": a 60% hit rate against a 59% control is the instrument's own drift.
Chart grades, both reports
FOLLOWED needs the wave and the road map; WAVE ONLY and TIMING ONLY got one of the two; a chart is not gradable when its windows or turns are still open or no usable price series exists.
Does price dance with the 2026 red line? Stocks ranked
- Dance test, 2026 report, red line, 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-09, tol=10 d, window=+-5 trading days, prominence>=0.0
- charts scored: 116 of 119
- line turns: 2146; matched: 1455 (67.8%); control expectation: 70.0% (sd 0.9%); p(one-sided, charts beat chance) = 0.994
- mean chart percentile vs own controls: 0.437 (0.5 = chance); charts above 0.9: 10, below 0.1: 18
- median gap on matched turns: 5 days
| # | Symbol | Instrument | Turns matched | Score | control | Percentile vs own controls | Median gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSLA | Tesla Inc. | 15 of 16 | 94% | 76% | 97% | 3 d |
| 2 | V | Visa Inc. | 18 of 20 | 90% | 75% | 86% | 6 d |
| 3 | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 15 of 17 | 88% | 77% | 91% | 6 d |
| 4 | MRK | Merck & Co. | 14 of 16 | 88% | 71% | 95% | 6 d |
| 5 | GM | General Motors Co | 18 of 21 | 86% | 74% | 91% | 1 d |
| 6 | ZM | Zoom Communications Inc | 16 of 19 | 84% | 76% | 83% | 5 d |
| 7 | CB | Chubb Ltd | 16 of 19 | 84% | 76% | 75% | 2 d |
| 8 | MU | Micron Technology Inc | 15 of 18 | 83% | 69% | 93% | 7 d |
| 9 | LLY | Eli Lilly and Co | 15 of 18 | 83% | 71% | 86% | 6 d |
| 10 | TGT | Target Corporation | 9 of 11 | 82% | 68% | 85% | 2 d |
| 11 | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd | 12 of 15 | 80% | 79% | 53% | 5 d |
| 12 | PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 15 of 19 | 79% | 75% | 66% | 5 d |
| 13 | DIS | Disney | 18 of 23 | 78% | 71% | 81% | 5 d |
| 14 | CSCO | Cisco Systems Inc | 14 of 18 | 78% | 77% | 51% | 5 d |
| 15 | KO | Coca-Cola | 17 of 22 | 77% | 68% | 90% | 2 d |
| 16 | ORCL | Oracle Corp | 17 of 22 | 77% | 73% | 72% | 8 d |
| 17 | COST | Costco | 17 of 22 | 77% | 72% | 72% | 5 d |
| 18 | DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 16 of 21 | 76% | 63% | 92% | 2 d |
| 19 | ONON | On Holding AG | 19 of 25 | 76% | 72% | 73% | 5 d |
| 20 | KMI | Kinder Morgan Inc | 9 of 12 | 75% | 69% | 68% | 3 d |
| 21 | HD | Home Depot | 14 of 19 | 74% | 67% | 79% | 2 d |
| 22 | FAST | Fastenal Company | 14 of 19 | 74% | 70% | 62% | 6 d |
| 23 | MSFT | Microsoft | 14 of 19 | 74% | 72% | 59% | 3 d |
| 24 | NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 14 of 19 | 74% | 72% | 53% | 6 d |
| 25 | SHEL | Shell PLC | 14 of 19 | 74% | 73% | 51% | 5 d |
| 26 | WMT | Walmart Inc. | 19 of 26 | 73% | 67% | 83% | 2 d |
| 27 | JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | 16 of 22 | 73% | 66% | 72% | 6 d |
| 28 | NFLX | Netflix | 8 of 11 | 73% | 72% | 51% | 5 d |
| 29 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 13 of 18 | 72% | 77% | 29% | 6 d |
| 30 | COIN | Coinbase Global Inc. | 7 of 10 | 70% | 75% | 34% | 1 d |
| 31 | AAPL | Apple | 16 of 23 | 70% | 69% | 57% | 6 d |
| 32 | KHC | Kraft Heinz Company | 17 of 25 | 68% | 68% | 50% | 4 d |
| 33 | ASML | ASML Holding NV | 17 of 25 | 68% | 73% | 31% | 4 d |
| 34 | BRK-B | Berkshire Hathaway | 14 of 21 | 67% | 68% | 42% | 5 d |
| 35 | BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc | 12 of 18 | 67% | 72% | 31% | 3 d |
| 36 | CVX | Chevron | 12 of 18 | 67% | 71% | 30% | 5 d |
| 37 | USRT | i Shares Core US REIT ETF | 10 of 15 | 67% | 74% | 26% | 5 d |
| 38 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 14 of 21 | 67% | 74% | 16% | 6 d |
| 39 | CMG | Chipotle Mexican Grill | 14 of 21 | 67% | 74% | 15% | 6 d |
| 40 | XOM | Exxon | 15 of 23 | 65% | 75% | 13% | 6 d |
| 41 | IBM | International Business Machines | 13 of 20 | 65% | 70% | 34% | 2 d |
| 42 | AMZN | Amazon | 12 of 19 | 63% | 68% | 33% | 3 d |
| 43 | BAC | Bank of America | 12 of 19 | 63% | 68% | 30% | 3 d |
| 44 | MSTR | Microstrategy Inc | 12 of 19 | 63% | 69% | 29% | 6 d |
| 45 | AXP | American Express | 12 of 19 | 63% | 69% | 27% | 1 d |
| 46 | F | Ford | 12 of 19 | 63% | 73% | 16% | 2 d |
| 47 | AAL | American Airlines Group Inc | 15 of 24 | 62% | 64% | 42% | 6 d |
| 48 | SHOP | Shopify Inc | 5 of 8 | 62% | 73% | 23% | 5 d |
| 49 | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | 12 of 20 | 60% | 66% | 25% | 6 d |
| 50 | QQQ | Invesco QQQ | 9 of 15 | 60% | 68% | 21% | 2 d |
| 51 | PG | Procter & Gamble Company | 9 of 15 | 60% | 72% | 13% | 6 d |
| 52 | MO | Altria Group Inc | 10 of 17 | 59% | 69% | 14% | 6 d |
| 53 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 9 of 16 | 56% | 76% | 4% | 2 d |
| 54 | CAT | Caterpillar Inc | 11 of 20 | 55% | 62% | 23% | 1 d |
| 55 | SBUX | Starbucks Corp | 11 of 20 | 55% | 78% | 0% | 7 d |
| 56 | FNGU | Micro Sectors FANG+ | 7 of 13 | 54% | 70% | 9% | 6 d |
| 57 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc | 8 of 15 | 53% | 72% | 4% | 2 d |
| 58 | META | Meta Platforms | 9 of 18 | 50% | 67% | 3% | 4 d |
| 59 | VZ | Verizon Communications Inc | 10 of 21 | 48% | 71% | 0% | 6 d |
| 60 | TTD | Trade Desk Inc | 9 of 19 | 47% | 63% | 7% | 6 d |
| 61 | RITM | Rithm Capital Corp. | 4 of 11 | 36% | 64% | 4% | 5 d |
A turn is matched when price turns the same way within 10 days of the line's turn. Percentile is where the chart falls among its own random-placement controls; 50% is chance.